Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 189.974403 226.874403 271.324106 329.525649 404.797042 500.380827 6.334595e+02
2025-08-31 140.745407 182.106085 237.585027 319.664700 442.056469 624.954632 9.341710e+02
2025-09-07 123.122034 169.351394 236.798448 347.098231 533.152510 856.314881 1.520209e+03
2025-09-14 106.083158 152.380486 224.154216 350.684928 585.782843 1048.379600 2.180017e+03
2025-09-21 95.081343 141.730457 217.958339 361.670504 653.755205 1302.831797 3.210261e+03
2025-09-28 84.484654 129.591059 206.397654 359.216961 693.814519 1520.230105 4.402777e+03
2025-10-05 80.582530 127.712402 211.878578 390.381029 818.525543 2029.848245 7.398948e+03
2025-10-12 76.398632 124.552756 214.209470 415.576944 941.323326 2640.973796 1.241571e+04
2025-10-19 72.026856 120.320308 213.562398 433.959084 1056.124528 3345.255163 2.079727e+04
2025-10-26 67.581854 115.279756 210.317132 445.337023 1157.697042 4124.525186 3.476949e+04
2025-11-02 63.015599 109.384504 204.256890 448.131706 1235.110765 4910.073871 5.702918e+04
2025-11-09 58.017529 102.035864 193.919756 437.218343 1261.787870 5489.037837 8.570670e+04
2025-11-16 53.330293 94.987277 183.651312 425.375534 1285.937809 6148.682214 1.361537e+05
2025-11-23 49.161885 88.567651 173.932775 412.972734 1304.024514 6837.833052 2.234126e+05
2025-11-30 48.479825 89.311269 180.896817 451.488919 1560.498188 10029.524705 9.873783e+05
2025-12-07 45.965538 85.846587 177.245392 456.559641 1674.031524 12409.820181 3.722658e+06
2025-12-14 44.196077 83.804266 176.783727 472.009062 1854.413400 16423.344484 5.141177e+07
2025-12-21 41.723600 79.940341 171.145881 468.557018 1934.248390 19617.761794 8.865128e+09
2025-12-28 41.420324 80.939050 178.280065 512.592386 2338.156933 31916.028241 NaN
2026-01-04 40.701245 80.891667 182.635779 548.462940 2743.724751 50945.616984 NaN
2026-01-11 39.640508 79.918558 184.290714 574.778889 3125.171154 79190.411090 NaN
2026-01-18 38.318785 78.179379 183.508730 591.127732 3458.964504 119025.281298 NaN
2026-01-25 36.736029 75.649865 180.066455 595.150316 3698.177615 167926.769420 NaN